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Yuliia Bond handles two jobs, raises two children, and is studying at university. This past fall, she made time to take on Reform UK when it attempted to secure the Caerphilly constituency byelection.

Bond, a refugee from Ukraine who has settled in south Wales, explained she could not remain silent as Reform aimed to win the seat in the Senedd, the parliament of Wales.

“People from our Ukrainian community raised their voices,” Bond commented. “We confronted the disinformation because we didn’t want our neighbours from being misled into resenting us. I hoped to avoid people turning against us because of lies. So I spoke up and others followed suit.

“Reform UK attempted to generate fear and division with strategies used not only in the UK, but by far-right political parties across Europe and across the world. The messages they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt borrowed – as if someone replicated a script from another country and dropped it through our doors.”

An Overconfident Campaign Meets Grassroots Resistance

The party, led by Nigel Farage, was confident it could win the byelection, particularly since Labour, the dominant party in Wales for a century, appears to be declining rapidly. An vigorous campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and individuals such as Bond – kept out the right-leaning party.

“Their greatest mistake was presuming that people here have no critical thinking,” Bond said. “They thought nobody would verify the facts. They believed that refugees are not just in need, but somehow uninformed. That is incorrect. We may have fled a war, but we are not naive. We understand policies.”

One of Reform’s central claims was that the Welsh government’s nation of sanctuary scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “mass immigration agenda” and that “asylum seekers” were receiving “special privileges”. This assertion was unfounded – more than 80% of the nation of sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.

Bond noted: “When I saw the campaign literature, all I could see was a clear attempt to divide people, to blame a small group, and stoke hostility in a place that had been hospitable to us.

“It didn’t work in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from different backgrounds are not strangers. We are integrated into the community. People are familiar with us.

“They see us at school gates, in shops, at work, volunteering. They know what we contribute. The picture in the leaflet simply didn’t match reality. Most residents could feel that something was off. It felt like deception, not truth.”

The Result and Enduring Lessons

Bond was interviewed in the “orchard of thanks” in Caerphilly, planted by members of the Ukrainian community as a thank-you for the warm welcome they have received.

She said the arrival of Reform had put pressure on Ukrainian people in the area. “Those in a difficult position should not have to carry this burden. Yet, during the election, we had to speak out first. Only later did support come – from local residents, politicians from different parties, and local media.”

There are scheduled Senedd elections in May when Reform hopes to become the leading party in Wales.

Bond said people opposing Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK had to challenge the party’s messages swiftly and with certainty.

“As a Ukrainian, I know how harmful disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with false narratives, biased information and lies that prepared the ground for violence.

“Disinformation must be countered early, strongly and unambiguously, because hate spreads faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were truly exhausting. We just had to survive it. But we survived together, and that is why the campaign of division was unsuccessful in Caerphilly.”

The Successful Strategy’s Viewpoint

For Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid candidate, the aftermath the byelection was a blur. Public recognition was widespread.

Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had believed the party might sweep all before them. She said: “The thought was that they’d spend obscene amounts of money and beat us.”

So how did they halt the juggernaut? One reason, Whittle thinks, is that Plaid ran an upbeat, optimistic campaign. “Don’t attack anyone personally because people don’t like that. Keep the message positive. Try and bring together people.

“People in Caerphilly have friends of different nationalities and they disapprove of people targeting their friends. Voters recognise that without newcomers coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform underestimated the people of Caerphilly.”

While Whittle made the headlines, an fierce grassroots campaign was under way in the background. Dedicated party members knocked on thousands of doors.

“We think it was the most important byelection we’ve ever fought,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to good policies – and people who are passionate about them passionately.

Local Insights and Expert Analysis

A local editor was surprised at how polarising the campaign was. “We had communities clashing with each other, campaign posters torn down, really sharp debates online. I grew up in this area and I know everyone’s lovely so to see that side come out was a shock.”

The decisive moment is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member challenged the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.

“That was someone from our community who had a multi-ethnic family explicitly stating the impact all this language had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly isn’t the most multicultural of places but we’ve always welcomed people from overseas. That was the turning point.”

A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a unique perspective on the byelection.

He said Plaid was extremely successful in presenting the election as a straight two-horse race – but this will be harder at the Senedd elections in May when a new proportional system comes in.

“It tended to be somewhat ill-informed or, at times, condescending. But Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own dynamics and can’t simply be interpreted through the perspective of what is happening in England. It was satisfying to see my home town defy those simplistic assumptions.”